busterbrown16
1000+ posts
09/14/10 01:55 PM
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Stuck in a .500 rut so far this year. My favorite play so far this week, and jumped out at me immediately.
Illinois -7 (it is up to -8 at most places and I still like it at -8).
Illinois is living off their bad reputation under the Juice Williams era. They were horrible and a lot of people made a lot of money fading this team. Well, Juice is gone and Zook is fighting for his job. They hung in there with a good Mizzou team and probably should have won. They beat a very good Southern Illinois team (probably top 5 FCS), 35-3. Northern Illinois is ranked in the 110-120 range in FBS. Illinois should get a similar result like they did against Southern Illinois.
There are several others I like and will be back later in the week to discuss, but wanted to get this one out there early.
 
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RaizerAlum
1000+ posts
09/15/10 04:06 PM
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early on, I like Houston -3 at UCLA.
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general35
5000+ posts
09/15/10 10:24 PM
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I like illinois but i may tease them with auburn. i like auburn as well. i think UH will kill UCLA and I like Iowa. I'll probably take TX too late. about a -3 spread is all they are capable of covering...
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ball911
2500+ posts
09/16/10 10:22 AM
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2-2 on posted plays last wk...this will be my last wk of "for fun" plays...crunching nxt wk. Plays:
UGa -2 v Ark...Dogs in "must win" situation catch Ark in first road game unprepared for a step-up in competition.
Miss St +9' @ LSU...MSU has played tough and looks well prepared to take on a pedestrian LSU team.
Bama -23' @ Duke...The only thing to prevent an easy cover is disinterest.
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JackieMartling
5000+ posts
09/16/10 01:49 PM
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3-0 on posted plays last week. Kicking myself for not playing Bama bigger as I almost really loaded up. Still a nice pay day. It's painful watching Paterno at this point.
Very little out there this week. Got on FSU Sunday night at -7 and Kentucky at 23.5.
Agree on Georgia, and played them. Muschamp fans need to become big Georgia and LSU fans over the next 6 to 8 weeks.
Re: UH...Keenum is obviously questionable. UH probably may still cover even with Cotton Jones QB'ing. But UCLA, while putrid, is in desperate mode, witness Neuheusel grabbing a mic and apologizing to the fans after the Stanford debacle. Will be interesting to see how UH handles prosperity and possibly the loss of its best player vs. a UCLA team that HAS to win this game before traveling to Austin.
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ppahorn
1000+ posts
09/17/10 08:44 AM
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Absolute bloodbath for me last week. Apologies to anyone tailing those terrible picks. I guess I'd rather lose by a lot than have some backdoor covers go against me. Back on the saddle for this week with a 4-7 posted record through week 2.
Plays for week 3
@Utah St. +7 over Fresno
Fresno's W over cincy isn't looking quite so impressive and they had little running game in that one. Utah St. is up and coming and should be formidable home dog with some upgraded talent
@Illinois -7 over no illinois
Other than an Ohio St. look ahead, all signs point to Illinois cruising in this one. Bobby Petrino's brother is the new OC and Vic Koenig has the D on a steep leanring curve. Surely enough to overcome the Zook factor right?
@WazzU +23.5 over SMU
Look I know SMU is resurgent but laying this many points to anyone is asking a lot. I sat next to Wazzu students during the Okie St. game in Vegas so maybe I'm feeling sorry for the poor kids ecause they are absolutely abysmal. SMU has revenge factor from last year's meltdown in Pulllman but Wazzu should be able to keep this one within shouting distance. SMU's passing game is sitll getting cranked up and don't expect much of a home field advantage on the Hilltop. Apparently the week 1 crowd was embarrassing.
East Carolina +20.5 over V-tech -- This line keeps moving up and I'll gladly go against the public in this matchup. I don't think you can fix what ails V-tech in one week.
Cal -2.5 over Nevada -- Until Nevada proves something against real competition, I will continue to fade them in these types of matchups. Not an overly difficult roadtrip for Cal and superior talent.
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DFW Sports Blog
Edited by ppahorn (09/17/10 08:50 AM)
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busterbrown16
1000+ posts
09/17/10 10:19 AM
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5-5-1 so far on the year. Had NC State last night (books have not caught on to them yet, but are about to), but forgot to post it. Will not count it in my record.
In addition to Illinois, I like the following tomorrow:
Rice +7 (bought a 1/2 point)
Navy -3 (bought a 1/2 point)
Army -5
Tulsa +7 - Okie State defense is terrible
Stanford -17
Also like East Carolina +20 and Duke +24, but a little scared on both of those so still deciding.
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JackieMartling
5000+ posts
09/17/10 02:05 PM
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Looks like Keenum will play.
Added Baylor +21.5
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ppahorn
1000+ posts
09/17/10 06:11 PM
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Thanks for the heads up on keenum. The number is now at 3.5 / 4 with my guys.
The Link
DFW Sports Blog
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Larry T. Spider
1000+ posts
09/17/10 06:26 PM
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3-3 so far on the year.
Georgia -2
East Carolina +20.5
Wazzu +23
Texas ML -155
I f-ing hate OU.
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ball911
2500+ posts
09/18/10 09:04 AM
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Additional considerations which I am posting now because they will likely be game-time decisions.
Fla-Tenn Under
Mich St- v ND
UH- @ UCLA
Stan - v WF
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general35
5000+ posts
09/18/10 01:12 PM
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Illinois is leading by 6 in the 4th. they may end up covering this game but zook has to be the worst coach in the country.
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humahuma
100+ posts
09/18/10 04:51 PM
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Ariz -1.5
Tulsa + 7
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busterbrown16
1000+ posts
09/20/10 10:23 AM
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The Illinois game was brutal. Zook would not let his QB throw the ball. Why play him at QB if you won't let him throw it?
But even despite Zook, they have a 9 point lead and force a TO on N. Illinois's final drive, but a roughing the passer penalty nullifies it. NIU's FG kicker (former Illinois kicker who is at law school at NIU) hits a meaningless 50 yarder with :18 seconds left to blow the cover.
Really bad beat, but can't dwell on it.
2-3 on the weekend. Need to fix whatever is ailing me in the book.
Chelsea in EPL is turning into my only saving grace....
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busterbrown16
1000+ posts
09/20/10 10:24 AM
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Actually, looking back 3-3 on posted plays. But did much worse as I think I lost all my unposted plays.
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ppahorn
1000+ posts
09/20/10 02:44 PM
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I hear ya Buster on Illinois. I almost couldn't believe it when that N. Illinois kicker ran out there to try a 50 yarder.
Another tough week. Did better on non-posted plays but still lost the e. carolina implosion and was on the losing side of the hail mary with Troy / UAB.
Not even close to 
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DFW Sports Blog
Edited by ppahorn (09/20/10 02:47 PM)
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