JohnnyM
5000+ posts
11/19/10 09:52 AM
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Tonight's game falls into that category where the line is more than 1/3 of the total. I don't remember who talked about this a couple of years ago, but the theory is that you parlay both the fav/over and dog/under. Apparently it has a "good" track record, meaning you will eek out money over the course of an entire year.
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ChazUTX
2500+ posts
11/19/10 10:07 AM
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In reply to:
Tonight's game falls into that category where the line is more than 1/3 of the total. I don't remember who talked about this a couple of years ago, but the theory is that you parlay both the fav/over and dog/under. Apparently it has a "good" track record, meaning you will eek out money over the course of an entire year.
Are you saying to parly in two seperate parlays....one has the fav/over and the other parlay ticket has the under/dog? Not sure I understand the theory behind that of making money. So regardless of which ticket hits you'll bank $6 on a $20 bet...with a slight risk of both tickets losing. But I'm guessing the theory is that one of those will hit a vast majority of the time? Still to make any decent money you'd have to wager a good amount on each parlay.
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JohnnyM
5000+ posts
11/19/10 10:24 AM
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yeah it's a grind strategy, not meant to hit big. i ran some numbers a couple years back and found a positive return, but not something that i found worthwhile, and certainly not entertaining. you have to bet all the ones you find.
you win $16 on a $20 bet though (two $10 parlays), not $6. win $26 on one and lose $10 on the other. and yes you lose $20 if neither hits.
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ball911
2500+ posts
11/19/10 10:45 AM
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Last wk: 4-3 on posted plays, but racked up some nice units. Big hits on posted Ohio St, NC St...then big hits on unposted plays on Aub and OU, which allowed me to up my posted plays on OK St and USC.
This wk: made small plays so far this wk on the following:
NC St +2' @ NC...NC St playing for Div champ gets the road W 30-23.
Wisc -4 @ Mich...Wisc playing for Big 10 champ gets the W 40-30.
Ind +10' v PSU...Indy bounces back from shallacking @ Wisc to upset PSU 26-25.
VT -2 @ Mia...VT been on a roll and playing for Div champ gets road W 31-26.
NW +8 chi Ill...Prefer well coached NW to hang around with the Zooker...Ill 28-24.
Ark -3 @ MSU...Ark playing hot and just don't see MS O being able to keep pace...Ark 32-25.
Army +8 nyc ND...possible Army could get overpowered here, but Army presents the same sort of problems as Navy in beating ND. Army 28-27.
Tenn -9 @ Vandy...Hoping that Tenn's recent improvement isn't a mirage...Tenn 34-21.
Mary +3' v FSU...Believe or not, but Mary can win Div with Ws here and against NC St. FSU has been slumping...Mary 32-30.
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ChazUTX
2500+ posts
11/19/10 11:58 AM
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Ahh I gotcha Johnny...and yes you're correct meant $16 instead of $6. Yeah my book won't allow me to do a parlay where the fav is a 1/3 of the total or more. Just tried it....
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ChazUTX
2500+ posts
11/19/10 12:06 PM
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My guy's posted NBA plays (1-1 from what I've posted on here) He's 9-3 on the year for hammer plays.
Jazz -2.5 Hammer Play
Lakers -9.5 Hammer Play
OKC +8.5 (EDIT: He is still loving this play even with Durant out)
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ChazUTX
2500+ posts
11/19/10 01:34 PM
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Well I'm hammering the two games ball and I agree on...Wisc -4 and Ark -3.
Other posted plays for the weekend:
- Fresno +31(my book is showing it's at +29.5 now....luckily I got it at the opening line of +31) and OVER in this game.
- FAU +21 (I'll continue taking Texas' opponent until they can cover the spread at home)
All I'm on right now....may add a couple more games tomorrow morning.
Edited by ChazUTX (11/19/10 01:36 PM)
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ChazUTX
2500+ posts
11/20/10 05:04 AM
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Wow last night killed me in college. Fresno came to play on defense...holding Boise to 3 points in the 1st quarter and 20 for the first half....BUT...BUT their OFFENSE was HORRENDOUS! Wow....what a shame....that game should've been a lot closer than it was. Offense didn't show up....ugghh rough start to the weekend.
Another note my NBA guy came thru....2-1 on the night. Total record for his posted plays here is now 3-2. Will post his plays for today later....
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general35
5000+ posts
11/20/10 04:17 PM
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having adecent day. had wisconsin big. they won easy. stanford and i got fl atlantic. tonight i like aggie and arkansas. i like ou too but i want to tease them with someone. anybody like any college hoops. if i was smart i would take winnings and walk away.
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ChazUTX
2500+ posts
11/21/10 05:51 AM
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Yeah Wisconsin game and Arky game at the last minute in 2OT bailed me out from that disasterous Friday night I had. I had Wisconsin BIG and had Arky medium....rest of my plays were small as I didn't have much confidence in anything else.
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ball911
2500+ posts
11/21/10 12:09 PM
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NC St...W big
Wisc...W big x 2
Ind...L small
VT...W big
NW...L small
Ark...W small
Army...L small
Tenn...W small
Mary...L small
Unposted:
Stanford...W big...harbaugh interview convinced me
OU...W big
Looks like some good games this wk...good luck guys!
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ChazUTX
2500+ posts
11/21/10 05:23 PM
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Great week ball....let's end this college football season good and win money for all.
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JohnnyM
5000+ posts
11/21/10 06:07 PM
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really appreciate the help over the last two weeks guys, i'm finally going in the right direction! hope we can continue it.
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