North pole to melt this year?

Bronco, I considered PMing you last week, but I spend enough time on this as it is. I'd PM you now with a .pdf, but it's 4 MB. Some points:

-- I understand why you have you view of me. It's a risk I take.

-- I am presuming, based on what you've written, that you haven't read and thoroughly considered this entire thread.

-- I believe mop's points, which make up almost a third of this thread in total post numbers but which are limited to a couple of very, very basic arguments that he repeats ad infinitum, have been addressed thoroughly by others. He neither buys it nor seems willing to even consider it in any intellectually open fashion, as others also seem not to.

-- As I've noted more than once, it is easy to refute the view of mop and others not only with the links already posted by others, but by reading openly on one's own. I've posted a basic recipe for doing that. Ultimately, that's everyone's responsibility. You don't have to take my word -- or mop's -- for anything.

-- If you follow this link, which I posted earlier and which is too large to send to you, it links to probably the best and most thorough summary of what this is about. Again, it's 52 pages. Sorry, but it's what I'm talking about. Some people are willing to read or at least skim with an open mind. Others aren't. I'll assume, for the time being, that you would at least consider it. Or here's a shorter one, 22 pages, for policymakers; I haven't read it. The Link

Some basic points on climate change and global warming:

-- Dangerous warming is occurring in a very clear trend. That's not what this post is about, but it comes up tangentially. Most important in this regard is that what's happening in Austin today, or in the U.S. this month, or in the northern hemisphere this year, is irrelevant insofar as it's separated from the larger, long-term trend -- which, again, is clear and inarguable unless you're mop or one of his ilk. That's why he only talks about today or this year, time and time again, with both Antarctic ice and temperatures. For everything he posts about this year being cooler, any of us could post multiple links about record heat, year after year, for the past couple of decades, that is part of an even larger trend.

-- Temperature is only a part of the bigger climate-change picture. Global climate is a complex mechanism, and one month's temps or one area of Antarctica's ice, however nice it might look when we think wishfully, is only a little bit of the data.

-- Ice is melting in this world more than it is forming. Most worrisome is glacial melt, which will contribute to sea levels rising. Sea-ice melt, while interesting and puzzling, is a smaller part of the picture. And whatever mop says, as others have clearly pointed out, any Antarctic growth is being "offset" by other Antarctic melting and Arctic melting. But scientists don't talk about whether it's offsetting. They look at how it affects other climate patterns regionally AND wordlwide.

-- Water is basically irrelevant to the greenhouse gas issue. C02 has an impact far out of proportion to its actual volume, so small percentages mean big changes (the same is true for temps, by the way; a very small average temp change worldwide, even a few tenths of a percentage point, can have dramatic consequences).

-- I'm not a meterologist or climatologist, but I am part of a professional organization that deals with issues like this, and related ones, literally every day. I read a ton of stuff. You don't have to read a ton of stuff, but you should be willing to read more if you really want answers.

-- I do, despite blueglasshorse's call of BS, teach environmental journalism as a full-time faculty member. And I get tired of half-assed "research." I can't call it that in class because it will offend the students, and it'll come back to me. In fact, it's damned tough and extremely taxing to figure out how to say these things nicely just to be ignored time and time again. That's also part of the factor here in how I deal with naysayers, and how I believe we should deal with purposeful [censored] artists.

-- The larger issue is what GT WT described as a culture war. mop and others, including ExxonMobil and its propaganda allies, are waging it. There has been an extremely well-funded and successful obfuscation campaign in this country. Google "Exxon" and "climate change." Don't just read the first few links, as Exxon is beginning to wise up -- other oil companies and big businesses, the military, and many governments did it much earlier.

I'm barely getting started, and frankly, I have other important things to do. But I think this is important enough to respond to. I hope you'll consider these points with an open mind and read more for yourself. Frankly, my kids and I are counting on you and your kids.

I hope and pray that I'm wrong. But scientific consensus says I'm probably not.


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