GT WT
1000+ posts
07/06/11 01:27 PM
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Let's first make sure I'm right about your beliefs regarding science. So, how do you feel about common ancestry of man and bonobo?
"Faith must trample under foot all reason, sense, and understanding. "
Martin Luther
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mop
5000+ posts
07/06/11 01:55 PM
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Re: North pole to melt this year?
[re: GT WT] |
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GT, I have long found it very interesting that no matter how dramatically the world releases CO2, the graph has been relatively constant for the last 40 years or so. Any idea why that is? Shouldn't the graph be growing somewhat asymptotically like CO2 has been?
[img]http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/webdata/ccgg/trends/co2_data_mlo.png[/img]
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Coelacanth
2500+ posts
07/06/11 02:07 PM
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I'm not above being manipulated, GT. Happens all the time. But it's just so un-artful and transparent in this case, that I refuse to respond out of respect for my aesthetic principles. For the sake of moving on, you're free to think that I doubt evolution. And that I believe AIDS is transmitted primarily by gay mosquitoes. I honestly do not care. You'll have to find a more artful and less demeaning way of drawing me into those discussions than merely "Hey, I now call upon you to prove that you do not, in fact, believe in absurd positions". If that cost me bonus points, so be it. I'm willing to bet it will cost you more bonus points to withhold a presentation of the science that I supposedly doubt, especially since I asked you first and since my question is no manipulation, but is as straightforward as possible. Or, as I say, you're welcome to believe that I believe what I do or don't actually believe. Believe what you want.
Still, what science do you believe that I deny?
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pasotex
2500+ posts
07/06/11 02:19 PM
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thermodynamics?
Hook 'em!
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GT WT
1000+ posts
07/06/11 04:41 PM
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In reply to:
Or, as I say, you're welcome to believe that I believe what I do or don't actually believe. Believe what you want.
Thank you, Coelacanth. After arguing with you for many years I have no idea what you really believe on any issue. As I said before, you seem to argue more for the joy of arguing than for any desire to communicate a rational position.
"Faith must trample under foot all reason, sense, and understanding. "
Martin Luther
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mop
5000+ posts
07/06/11 05:03 PM
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I will answer. I don't believe In common descent. I question the current state of climate science. I believe the earth is roughly 4 billion years old. I believe the universe is 13.7 billion years old. I believe HIV causes AIDS. I don't believe that overpopulation is a huge problem yet or in the next Century.
That last one is a strange one because indon't think there is even close to a "consensus" on that one is there?
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Coelacanth
2500+ posts
07/06/11 07:02 PM
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Now that we have that out of the way, GT, what science in particular do you think I am denying?
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Ag with kids
5000+ posts
07/06/11 08:53 PM
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In reply to:
thermodynamics?
So...Aerosols are definitely a positive feedback and are quantifiable in their effect?
Eric '90
The face of a child can say it all, especially the mouth part of the face.
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mop
5000+ posts
07/06/11 09:33 PM
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interesting that the latest news out is that from 1998 to 2008 we saw no warming and actually a slight cooling trend. Even researchers are perplexed:
Cooling trend?
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Texoz
5000+ posts
07/08/11 12:19 PM
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The Link
In reply to:
The summer melt season is in full swing in the Arctic, and sea ice there is in record retreat. Arctic sea ice is currently at its lowest extent on record for early July, according to estimates from the National Snow and Ice Data Center and University of Bremen. Moreover, Arctic sea ice volume is at its lowest on record, according to the University of Washington Polar Science Center, and during June 2011, was reduced by nearly half (47%) compared to its maximum at the beginning of the satellite era, in 1979. The latest surface analysis from Environment Canada shows a 1039 mb high pressure system centered north of Alaska, which is bringing clear skies and plenty of ice-melting sunshine to the Arctic. The combined action of the clockwise flow of air around the high and counter-clockwise flow of air around a low pressure system near the western coast of Siberia is driving warm, southerly winds into the Arctic that is pushing ice away from the coast of Siberia, encouraging further melting. This pressure pattern, known as the Arctic Dipole, was dominant over the Arctic during June, leading to June having the 2nd lowest extent on record, and the record low extent observed at the beginning of July. The Arctic Dipole began emerging in the late 1990s, and was unknown before then; thus climate change is suspected as its primary cause. The Arctic Dipole has become increasingly common in the last six years, and has contributed significantly to the record retreat of Arctic sea ice.
In December 2009, I had a separate post titled, "Say Hello to the Arctic Dipole." It's likely going to be regular summer visitor now, and is a major NEW feature to the climate of the northern hemisphere.
The Link
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mop
5000+ posts
07/10/11 10:42 PM
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Back to the purpose of this thread: Northern Hemishpere Sea Ice (with an emphasis on the North Pole). Currently, the sea ice in the north pole is at a low for this time of year. If the PIPS is to be trusted, we should see the graph line begin to cut through previous years back into a modest place. The next 2 months should be quite interesting indeed.
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Texoz
5000+ posts
07/12/11 12:30 PM
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The Link
below was found at bottom of linked page.
In reply to:
Ocean heat
An article published recently in the journal Science showed that the flow of ocean heat into the Arctic Ocean from the Atlantic is now higher than any time in the past 2000 years. The warm, salty Atlantic water flows up from the mid-latitudes and then cools and sinks below the cold, fresh water from the Arctic. The higher salt content of the Atlantic water means that it is denser than fresher Arctic water, so it circulates through the Arctic Ocean at a depth of around 100 meters (328 feet). This Atlantic water is potentially important for sea ice because the temperature is 1 to 2 degrees Celsius (1.5 to 3 degrees Fahrenheit) above freezing. If that water rose to the surface, it could add to sea ice melt.
Besides warming the Arctic, this could signal the beginning of changing ocean currents, and a whole new discussion about climate change.
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mop
5000+ posts
07/19/11 09:02 AM
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so 2011 arctic sea ice is trending below 2007 for the lowest to date in the 15% concentration graph. On the 30% concentration graph is just went above 2007 but is still below all other years.
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Oilfield
5000+ posts
07/19/11 09:31 AM
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71 pages.
Incredible!
America will never be destroyed from the outside. If we falter and lose our freedoms, it will be because we destroyed ourselves. -- Abraham Lincoln
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mop
5000+ posts
07/19/11 04:49 PM
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this is going on for a long time….soon we will reach the date when the original article softly predicted we "may" be ice free…...
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pasotex
2500+ posts
07/21/11 06:07 PM
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In reply to:
Arctic sea ice extent declined at a rapid pace through the first half of July, and is now tracking below the year 2007, which saw the record minimum September extent. The rapid decline in the past few weeks is related to persistent above-average temperatures and an early start to melt. Snow cover over Northern Eurasia was especially low in May and June, continuing the pattern seen in April.
The Link
I could have sworn someone promised arctic ice was going to start increasing.
Hook 'em!
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pasotex
2500+ posts
07/21/11 06:27 PM
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From page 51 of this thread: In reply to:
the la nina that is kicking in is promising to be a doozy, or at least that's more and more what it's looking like. the global temperatures will be dropping soon which means they will arrive in plenty of time to greatly increase Arctic ice.......looks like 2011 could be another uptick in ice extent in the north seas. if so, that will mean at least 3 out of 4 years of increasing ice.....not a powerful trend by any means (too short) but certainly not the "death spiral" talk that started this thread eh?
Any guesses as to whom this is?
Hook 'em!
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mop
5000+ posts
07/21/11 09:32 PM
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paso, that was me of course! i am an eternal optimist about the ice aren't i? of course, i will remind you that the melt season is about half over now and we have by far the most interesting part of the season ahead of us. the real test of ice thickness is only just now coming. the ice has melted ahead of schedule, but keep in mind this is ice that has melted as far back as we have been watching (in terms of extent). utlimately, in the long term it is the thickness that holds out so these last 2 months will get interesting. in that vein, the 30% concentration graph has now crossed over 2007 and the 15% concentration graph has turned towards 2007 and began to close the gap. this could be a new "lowest year on record" but i wouldn't bet on it (of course from the other side, i wouldn't bet against it either!). let's give it another 8 weeks and see what comes of this year.
IJIS 15% graph
DMI 30% graph
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mop
5000+ posts
07/21/11 10:30 PM
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Re: North pole to melt this year?
[re: mop] |
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not sure how much weight to attribute to PIPS (Polar Ice Projection System 2.0), but it is basically the Navy's system so I am sure they have to rely on its accuracy for practical things. it is fascinating to go to the "thickness archive" and then pull up July 20, 2011. then you can "edit" just the year and go back one year at a time. you will find that the thickness since 2008 has steadily increased. strangely, 2007 had MORE thickness than the last 3 years, but i think that had a big part to do with why it was such a low ice extent year. at any rate, we are in a far better thickness level than last year and the year before at this same time. should be interesting to see how this progresses over time. clearly, based upon 2007, merely having a big chunk of thicker ice doesn't mean the ice area extent will be bigger, but the volume may be growing nonetheless (and of course i am only referring to the past few years not making a midterm historical statement about our 30 years of solid data).
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Ag with kids
5000+ posts
07/22/11 10:35 AM
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Eric '90
The face of a child can say it all, especially the mouth part of the face.
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